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Election of Komorowski as president will not lead to change in Poland’s policy regarding Belarus

The election of Bronislaw Komorowski as president of Poland will not lead to a change in the neighboring country’s policy regarding Belarus, Alyaksandr Milinkevich, leader of the Movement for Freedom, told BelaPAN.

“I believe that Poland’s policy will not change, it will be consistent but may become more pronounced,” said Mr. Milinkevich. “With the support of the same Komorowski, Poland chose a path aimed at a dialogue with the Belarusian authorities and at support of pro-democratic organizations in Belarus, and was one of the initiators of the European Union’s Eastern Partnership program.”

In addition, Mr. Komorowski’s election provides a chance for the development of Polish-Belarusian relations because he has family roots in Belarus, Mr. Milinkevich noted. “I know from my personal meetings with Komorowski that Belarus is interesting for him and he would like Belarus to become a democratic country and embark on the path of integration into Europe. I think he will be an active player in this new policy of the EU regarding Belarus.”

The election of Mr. Komorowski will “help strengthen the policy of cooperation, which should lead to democratization and reforms in our country,” Mr. Milinkevich said.

As for the issue of the Union of Poles in Belarus (UPB), it is unlikely that the election of the new president in Poland will immediately change the status quo, Mr. Milinkevich noted. “Very much depends on the Belarusian authorities in this regard,” he said. “The UPB conflict is not only an ethnic conflict. It is a conflict between the authorities and civil society.”

Political analyst Dzyanis Melyantsow said in an interview with BelaPAN that the election of Komorowski will not prompt Warsaw to do more for the democratization of Belarus. “Judging from statements made by both presidential candidates during televised debates, I can say that Poland will not make an active effort to change the political system in Belarus,” Mr. Melyantsow said.

“Poland agrees that there are problems in Belarus, but they should be solved through increased contacts with Belarusian government officials, and that a policy of gradual involvement should be pursued regarding Minsk. And Komorowski will follow this concept of the European Union.”

“Now that Belarus has strained relations with Russia and is involved in the EU’s Eastern Partnership program, Poland could play an efficient role in the integration of Belarus into Europe. I think the process will progress in this direction.”

The acutest problem in bilateral relations is the conflict regarding the Union of Poles in Belarus, Mr. Melyantsow noted. “It is most likely that Poland will not take drastic steps,” he said. “This issue is considered important. It is discussed. But it doesn’t produce a determining effect on the relationship between the two states at the level of real politics. I think that under the new president, Poland will make an attempt to alleviate the conflict.”

However, everything will depend on whether the Belarus issue will be a priority for the Komorowski administration, Mr. Melyantsow noted.